Mar 27, 2005, 05:35
How Many Games Will The Spurs Win Without Tim?
By Spurs Fans
SpursTalk.com
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We continue the series of Point-Counterpoint articles in which two people debate different aspects of Spurs basketball.
In this edition, fans from Spurstalk.com message boards TDfan2007 and Guru of Nothing discuss how many games the Spurs will win without Tim Duncan in the lineup.
TDfan2007: Without Tim Duncan, the Spurs will win no more than 7 games the rest of the season.
Tim’s status: out 2-4 weeks (possibly the entire season!) because of a grade 2 sprained ankle.
This was a huge blow for the Spurs, who already have another one of their big 3, Manu, who is nursing a plethora of nagging injuries. Without Ginobili, hampered by his nagging injuries, at 100%, things will be very difficult for the Spurs without Tim.
Tim, a yearly candidate for Most Valuable Player, makes the game much easier for the rest of the team. Tim demands a double team on the low block, and this gives opportunities for the rest of the team to get open looks. With Tim gone, the other Spurs have had to work a lot harder to get their shots off and to score. Because of this, many of them have lost their legs in the 4th quarter, getting beaten on defense and missing shots on offense.
Tim is also one of the very few stars in the league that can greatly affect a game without scoring. This is because he is an excellent defender. He is a great shot blocker and help defender. Tim's absence has been extremely noticeable on the defensive end of all 5 of the games he has missed with the opposing team averaging about 96 points per game. Teams average about 85 points per game against the Spurs for the season.
All of these facts point to a bad road for the Spurs who had the best record in the league until Duncan’s injury.
Guru of Nothing: At first glance, it looks like I don't have a leg to stand on if I disagree with your bleak assessment - Not only is Duncan hurt and the team is coming off a miserable defeat to the lowly Knicks, but they also have four back-to-backs amidst their remaining 15 games and Manu is gingerly working his way back into the rotation, plus Parker has been banged up a little lately too.
Still, lets look at the schedule: I immediately see five games I expect the Spurs to win: Pacers, ClippersX2, Warriors, and Hawks.
Houston will be tough, but with Juwan Howard out, they will be forced to a smaller lineup, much like the Spurs. I expect the Spurs to win at least one small-ball game between Houston and Seattle (rested and at home for both).
As for the other games, the Lakers can be tough, but if Bruce can contain Kobe, Spurs win. Portland represents a tough challenge, IF they have any heart with about a week to go in the season. Speaking of heart, will Minnesota bring anything at all into the last game of the season if they are out of the hunt? Regardless, I’ll wildly speculate that Duncan plays the final 2 or 3 games to tune his game for the playoffs, which is plenty to snuff out the Wolves, and force a split with the Grizzlies.
[Gazes into crystal ball] Spurs finish 10-5.
Do you underestimate the Spurs, or do I underestimate their opponents?
TDfan2007: The Spurs had a chance to prove their doubters wrong and gain some confidence by beating the Knicks. The Spurs had to work extremely hard to get a shot off all night and eventually lost their legs in the second half as well as the game. Tim makes the game much easier for the Spurs by drawing double teams and giving the rest of the Spurs open shots.
Here is a look at our next 7:
@ Indiana
Atlanta
Houston
Seattle
@ Denver
Lakers
Clippers
Stephen Jackson (Indiana), Josh Smith (Atlanta), Tracy McGrady (Houston), Carmelo Anthony (Denver), Kobe Bryant (Lakers), and Corey Maggette (Clippers) all love attacking the rim. Guarding these players will be extremely difficult without a great shot blocker like Tim in the lane.
With all of the injuries to other Spurs I don't see how they can win any more than 6 or 7 games without Tim.
Guru of Nothing: Every NBA team, every season, experiences aberrations in their game while carrying out an 82 game schedule. Luckily, for Spurs fans such as myself, aberrations are measured by losses.
One game does not a season make; nor does one player make a TEAM - especially when their names are Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and (gag me) Carmelo Anthony.
Yeah, Tim Duncan "rules," but the remaining talent in his absence is more than enough to compete at a very high level; however, when the production of Tim Duncan is sucked out of the lineup in an instant, expect it to take a game or two to adjust, especially after a significant late season trade.
Some love the player and some love the team.
Teams win championships.
GO SPURS GO!
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