Sixteen wins.
That's it. Sixteen. One less than Cleveland and Denver had during the entire 2002-03 season is all it takes to win an NBA title.
In order for the San Antonio Spurs to defend their NBA Championship, they will have to beat a team that has defeated them three out of four times this season -- the upstart Memphis Grizzlies.
Some pundits would have you believe that this opening round Western Conference match-up may have an upset winner. At a quick glance, it might seem so. What most people have neglected to notice is that the league's current MVP Tim Duncan played less minutes (seven) than backup-backup-backup point guard Charlie Ward did (twelve) in the three losses.
The Spurs-Grizzlies match-up should actually be one of the more entertaining series of the first round.
Starting Lineups
PG: Tony Parker vs. Jason Williams
This has the makings of the best match-up in the series. Parker scores more points and at a more efficient percentage than Williams, but J-Will turns the ball over less and is a better distributor. Parker won't have to score his 15.5 per game for the Spurs to win. However if he gets in a shooting slump early, he'll need to contribute in other ways. Parker will have some games where he will need to penetrate and dish rather than be the second scoring option. His consistency will be a key. Parker wins the match-up by a small margin.
SG: Hidayet Turkoglu vs. Mike Miller
One of the most overused terms in sports has to be "The X-Factor". Even worse? It's necessary. Turkoglu has performed well this season. He's hit timely shots, scored in bunches and provided a threat from the perimeter. He's also been in a bit of a slump in the month of April. Turkoglu will need to hit a few shots early to regain some confidence. Miller, on the other hand, has been a consistent double-digit scorer all season and should balance out Turkoglu's scoring. Unless Turkoglu becomes "The X-Factor" and goes nuts, this match-up goes to Miller
SF: Bruce Bowen vs. James Posey
Bowen has simply owned some of the top players in the league this season with his stifling defense, while Posey has many calling him the Most Improved Player of the Year. Both are very well deserving of the awards for which they are being considered. Look for Posey to continue scoring 13.3 per game, but those 13 points will come at the cost of extra shots. If Posey can continue his 48% shooting, he wins. If it's less than 40%, scratch another one for Bowen.
PF: Tim Duncan vs. Pau Gasol
A rising star faces a two-time league MVP. While this might normally be an easier pick, it's not. Gasol's athleticism might test Duncan's recovering knee, which has had people in an uproar about his health. The reason Duncan hasn't played as many minutes since before the injury is because the Spurs have played better and scored enough to allow Duncan more rest time. Gasol will have to get Duncan into foul trouble and play strong defense to keep Duncan from scoring 25, grabbing 16 rebounds, dishing out four assists and sending Memphis on vacation early. Edge goes to Duncan.
C: Radoslav Nesterovic vs. Lorenzen Wright
Wright, along with many other key Grizzlies, is facing injuries coming in. Wright is just now returning to form after sitting out 13 games, but I expect that Wright will benefit from the lack of scoring and hit double-digits consistently this series. Nesterovic's offensive rebounding will be key for the Spurs to take advantage of multiple scoring chances. Nesterovic, along with Duncan, will welcome orange balls with a nice swat more than six times per game during the series. Tie goes to the winner.
Bench
What might give the Spurs an edge here is the injury to Memphis guard Bonzi Wells as well as the spark that Sixth Man of the Year candidate Manu Ginobili provides San Antonio. The Grizzlies have a deeper bench, but not a huge advantage. Spurs upstart Devin Brown's injury may mean more than it appears. If Brown can heal quickly and get back in the Spurs' lineup, it will provide San Antonio a big boost. Memphis' balanced attack could provide trouble if fouls become an issue, but veterans like Malik Rose, Kevin Willis and Robert Horry should hold their own when the pressure is on. At face value, Memphis gets a slight edge.
Keys to Victory
San Antonio is the top defensive team in the NBA. It has to stay that way. Can't score, won't win. The Spurs also have to win the rebound battle. Memphis is near the top in grabbing more boards than their opponents, so San Antonio will have to grab those misses and get second and third chances to score. Hitting their shots when Duncan kicks it out of the double-team allows Duncan to take over later on.
Memphis has to limit the Spurs to one shot per possession and make San Antonio turn the ball over. It's imperative that they get back on transition defense and not get stuck in San Antonio's game plan. If they do, points will be an even rarer commodity. As much as likely Coach of the Year winner Hubie Brown would like to keep the balance, one or two Grizzlies need to have breakout performances. Gasol's going to get his 15 and 7; it'd be nice if somebody like Lorenzen Wright and/or Stromile Swift could get 15 and 7 as well.
Prediction
San Antonio wins in five games. As well as Memphis has played this season, their fall down the stretch will cost them a trip to the second round (they would have beaten Sacramento handily). San Antonio always has something to prove and they'd like to get four of those 16 wins as quickly as possible.
